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Bird Flu   
posted: Thursday, December 21, 2006 | Categories: Influenza

Bird flu might have disappeared from the news recently but the likelihood of a human pandemic has not receded along with media interest in the story. When a dead swan was found in Scotland earlier this year the whole of the world’s media seemed to go crazy but interest soon faded, even after the confirmation that the dead bird was indeed infected with the H5N1 strain of the influenza virus, as this seemed to be an isolated incident with a single migratory bird that had strayed off course.

The Global Health Research Forum believes that the highly pathogenic H5N1 strain of the virus could be with us for another decade and they believe that there is a strong possibility of this virus mutating into one which can be transferred between humans. So far a few hundred humans have been infected with the virus since 2003 but these have all been people who have come into close contact with infected poultry or wild fowl.

There are widely varying estimates of the number of deaths which might occur in a flu pandemic. The UN has said that up to 150 million people could die worldwide but the World Health Organisation has distanced itself from this figure and has suggested that between 2 million and 7.4 million people are likely to die. The UK Government has arranged to stockpile around 14 million courses of the anti-viral drug Tamiflu which is effective in preventing the spread of influenza or reducing the symptoms once contracted. The Government is also in talks about acquiring a vaccine.

Given that the Government has only made provisions for around 25% of the UK population, many people are looking to purchase Tamiflu privately for themselves and their families as a precaution. Although GPs can write a private prescription for their patients, many are unwilling to do so at this stage. As a result, many people have turned to the internet to seek advice and to purchase Tamiflu.

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