The estimate for the number of swine flu deaths that Britain can expect should be reduced by 2/3s, it was claimed by the government’s Chief Medical Officer Sir Liam Donaldson.

While the figure given in July was 65,000, this was reduced to an estimate of 19,000. Sir Liam said the revision in the estimate was calculated by government scientists, who base their predictions on the estimate that 1 in 3 people would catch swine flu.

However original estimates did not take into account the swine flu vaccination, which has lead to the lowering of the expected mortality rate. Sir Liam also predicted that Britain could expect the predicted second wave of the virus in about 7 weeks.

Recently the rates of infection have been steadily dropping, with a drop of 5,000 in diagnoses in the past week. There has also been a 26% drop in people consulting their GPs about flu-like symptoms. The current death toll in the UK from swine flu stands at 70.

Though the news is encouraging, businesses have been warned not to underestimate the pressure workers' illness could put on them. After a survey from the British Chambers of Commerce showed that many companies did not have contingency plans if there was a high level of worker absence, the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) and the Business Continuity Institute (BCI) issued joint guidelines on how firms should prepare for workforce illness.

As the revised estimates were announced, new results from the trials into the swine flu vaccine indicated that the vaccine would work better if delivered in one dose, rather than two as the researchers originally thought.